When most people are asked, "Who do you think will win this year's World Cup?", the general response is whichever team they support and that is understandable obviously. Why support a team unless you think it can win? However, history has shown us that there's a certain pattern involved in who eventually goes on to win the World Cup. See if you can spot it...
1962 - Brazil
1966 - England
1970 - Brazil
1974 - West Germany
1978 - Argentina
1982 - Spain
1986 - Argentina
1990 - West Germany
1994 - Brazil
1998 - France
2002 - Brazil
2006 - Italy
Notice a pattern? You should. Ever since the 1962 World Cup in Chile, the winner has alternated between Europe and South America without fail. So, judging by that, this year is South America's year and so the winner should be either Argentina or Brazil.
But this is not the sole pattern. I pattern I've noticed every year I've seen the World Cup is that the favorites or the teams with the best odds of winning never do. In 1998, Brazil was expected to win the cup at a canter and they certainly looked the part before the fiasco over Ronaldo happened just before the final and France thrashed the Brazilians 3-0. In 2002, Argentina and France were clear favorites. Argentina had dominated CONMEBOL qualification while France were World and European champions. Neither managed to get past the group stage. Then in 2006, Brazil again emerged favorites, with Kaka almost at his peak and Ronaldinho just about crossing his. And yet they fell against their first tough opponent, France, in the quarters, to a solitary Thierry Henry goal. Thus, this year's favorites, Brazil again, and Spain, shouldn't do well. Spain have already gone back to choking, with a 1-0 defeat against Switzerland, while Brazil had to labor very hard to win against a team ranked 104 places below them (DPR Korea).
Thus, if one of Argentina or Brazil is to win the Cup, and Brazil being the favorites, shouldn't win, then this should be Argentina's year. But, another factor is that Brazil have won the trophy on every continent that the tournament has been hosted in - Europe (Sweden '58), South America (Chile '62), North America (Mexico '70 and USA '94) and Asia (Korea/Japan '02). So in that vein, they should win the first African world cup. In which case, I really hope the favorite eff-up tradition overrides the Brazil-win-on-every-continent tradition.
Thus, my prediction that Argentina will win is for once, not just biased, but also, well, kinda logical, both historically and the fact that they have the world's best player. At any rate, one of two traditions will break at the next World Cup. 2014 is Europe's year so Argentina/Brazil shouldn't win but it's going to be held in South America and a European team has never won outside Europe. And Brazil are the only country to have not won the World Cup as a host. So... Argentina?? I can only hope.
Well, all this speculation, as pseudo-logical as it seems, could prove to be bullshit, and who knows maybe Switzerland will end up winning the cup. Only time will tell whether the patterns hold on for another tournament. Me? I'm looking forward to the Albiceleste kick some Korean ass later today.
Oh, and Week-1 Review and Week-2 Preview to be up tomorrow!
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